📊 China’s exports to the U.S. fell from ~15% to ~12% in H1 2025. ASEAN has now overtaken the U.S. as China’s largest export market — even as total exports still grew +7.2% YoY.
This insight comes from our recent study on the U.S.–China tariff war, conducted by Yangfeng TAO
The 2025 tariff escalation isn’t halting trade; it’s rerouting it.
Platforms hit, then rebounded. Temu’s U.S. GMV share plunged from 40%+ to just above 20% in Q2, before recovering through aggressive marketing and logistics shifts. Data from our portfolio company XTransfer, which processes 2–3% of China’s total SME exports, shows U.S. payments dropping to ~9% this year before stabilizing as exporters diversified quickly.
Retailers under strain. Walmart, Target, and The Home Depot’s cash reserves have halved over five years, accelerating towards inventory-heavy procurement.
Supply chains redesigned. Exporters are moving to a three-tier model: multi-country manufacturing, overseas warehouses, and platform fulfillment.
Tao Motors shows what adaptation looks like — with 80% of its business once tied to the U.S., it still delivered +80% profit growth in H1 2025 by building a “China + Southeast Asia + North America” network.
Globalization isn’t ending. It’s being reconfigured — and speed of diversification will decide the winners.
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